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KVAL Sports Blog:
Pac-10 Openers: KVAL's Gameday Predictions
Oregon State quarterback Sean Canfield looks to throw during an NCAA college football game against UNLV on Saturday Sept. 12, 2009, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/Daniel Gluskoter) By Brian Elder - KVAL SportsIn less than 24 hours the Ducks and Beavers will have kicked off the Pac-10 season; so, as the conference season gets underway here are the predicitons for this weekend's action from the guys in the KVAL sports office. Oregon gets things started first with a 12:30 PM kickoff against sixth-ranked California. The Golden Bears have beaten the Ducks three straight times, and statistically they hold a big advantage over Oregon. But preseason numbers can be deceiving, especially when you compare the schedules between the two teams. Cal is getting a lot of credit for handling Maryland in the first game. But if you've followed the Terrapins since then, they had to go to overtime to get a 38-35 win over James Madison, and last week the Terps lost to Middle Tennessee State 32-31...at home. Outside of beating Maryland, Cal beat an over-matched Eastern Washington team 59-7, and proceeded to go on the road and defeat an average Minnesota team 35-21. So the Bears have done exactly what they should have up to this point. Oregon, meanwhile, has played a very difficult non-league schedule. The trip to Boise State was a gamble that blew up in the Duck's face, but to Oregon's credit the team was able to rebound from a huge emotional setback and get a win over Purdue - even if the game was closer than it should have been. Last week's win over Utah showed that Oregon is still a young, inconsistent team, but the Ducks have also proven to be resilient. The great equalizer could be Autzen Stadium. The crowd figures to be loud and disruptive - as always - and Kevin Riley still must prove that he can handle a big-time road game (Cal was 1-4 on the road a year ago). THE PICKS: Brian Elder - This week has felt eerily similar to last season between Oregon's wins over Stanford and Arizona. The passing game struggled against the Cardinal - on a wet field - and the fans booed Jeremiah Masoli before he eventually led the team on the game winning drive. The next week, Masoli and the passing game finally found their rhythm, and the Ducks suddenly became one of the hottest offensive teams in the country. Oregon needs balance to be successful on offense. Without the threat of the pass, the opposing defenses can stack the box and shut down the running game (Boise State in 2008). And after last week's miserable performance by the passing attack, look for Masoli and his receivers - after staying late and working on timing after practice a few times this week - to finally be on the same page. Oregon won't entirely shut down Jahvid Best and the Bears, but the defense will make enough plays to win. And this week, the offense will finally do the same. OREGON - 31, CAL - 28 Tom Ward - The Duck defense has been outstanding this season, and this week should be no different. Cal will get its points, but so will the Oregon defense, scoring another huge touchdown that will prove to be the difference in the game. OREGON - 35, CAL- 34 Nick Krupke - Oregon has made progress since the debacle in Boise, but the Ducks still haven't shown me enough to prove that they're ready for a team like Cal. The Bears will use a nice blend of Riley and Best to get their second straight win at Autzen, and knock the Ducks back down to .500 on the year. CAL - 35, OREGON - 24 Dirk Weishaar - Oregon simply hasn't shown the ability to be balanced offensively, and Cal should be able to shut down the Ducks if Oregon is one-dimensional. The Duck defense has saved the day a couple of times this year, but with the nation's premiere tailback coming to town in Jahvid Best, the Bears offense will be too much. There won't be any special teams or defensive touchdowns this week, which adds up to a victory for Cal. CAL - 34, OREGON - 21 The Beavers meanwhile have to rebound from their first loss of the season. Cincinnati snapped Oregon State's 26-game non-conference home winning streak, and the Bearcats were effective in limiting the effectiveness of the Rodgers brothers. Arizona also is coming off of it's first loss this year, and the Wildcats will pull a quarterback switch this week, giving Nick Foles the nod over Matt Scott. Foles is more of the classic drop-back passer, but he lacks the threat of the run that Scott brings to the table. The Wildcats do have one of the better ground attacks in the Pac-10, led by Nic Grigsby and Keola Antolin. The Arizona defense is also solid, coming in ranked 14th in the country in total defense. THE PICKS: Brian Elder - Nick Foles may be ready to try to go bombs-away on the OSU secondary that is ranked 9th in the Pac-10, but that might not be the best idea. Oregon State has played three spread teams who all throw the ball often, and Cincinnati's attack is led by one of the nation's best quarterbacks in Tony Pike. The bottom line is this - Oregon State's secondary is better than the stats show. The biggest area of concern for the Beavers is up front on the offensive line. Quarterback Sean Canfield has been sacked 10 times in three games, and if the line can't keep him upright it will be a long day for the offense. But if the Wildcats get too aggressive with their blitzes and stunts on defense, OSU will use a healthy dose of draw plays and screen passes to Jacquizz Rodgers to get some big plays. Look for the Beavs to frustrate Foles early and force some turnovers, and the offense will do this week what it couldn't against Cincinnati - score in the red zone. OSU - 27, ARIZONA - 10 Tom Ward - Reser is a tough place to play, and Nick Foles is about to find that out. Quizz should top the 100 yard mark, and Canfield will prove that he's more than capable of leading the offense. OSU - 24, ARIZONA - 10 Nick Krupke - The Beavers, like the Ducks, are still a work in progress. The good news is that Arizona is far from a polished group too. The Wildcats will get some points off of OSU mistakes, but the Beavers will have more than enough to get the job done and send the crowd at Reser home smiling. OSU - 27, ARIZONA - 17 Dirk Weishaar - OSU is the better football team. It's as simple as that. Mike Riley and Danny Langsdorf will find a way to spread the wealth on offense to more than just the Rodgers brothers, and that will keep Arizona off balance. Look for the Beavers to pull away in the second half. OSU - 31, ARIZONA - 17 Most Popular |
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