EUGENE, Ore. - Chip Kelly won't want to read this story.
The AccuScore computer forecasts the BCS No. 2 Ducks to win Saturday - and to win the national championship in January, whether Oregon faces BCS No. 1 Auburn or BCS No. 3 Boise State.
"AccuScore is not part of the BCS formula and does not rank teams on a weekly basis," said Zach Rosenfield. "However, we are able to simulate games 10,000 times to see who is better from our computer’s point of view. Unlike the BCS formulas who disregard margin of victory, we factor in each team and player’s complete game history, which means margin of victory counts."
After completing round robin simulations involving the BCS top three - Auburn, Oregon and Boise State - the AccuScore computers ranked the teams:
"While Oregon remains at No. 2 in the BCS, they continue to be the best team in AccuScore’s head-to-head simulated match ups versus other undefeated teams," Rosenfield said.
Not that the Ducks can coast to a championship: against both Auburn and Boise State, the margins of victory are safety slim.
"Oregon wins 54 percent of simulations against Auburn by an average score of 36-34," Rosenfield said. "As was the case in the Auburn-Oregon simulation, these teams are all about offense.
"The margin of victory is also two points if Oregon were to play Boise State," the AccuScore analyst said. "After 10,000 simulations, the Ducks beat the Broncos in 52 percent of simulations by an average score of 33-31. Much like the Auburn simulation, this game would be all about offense with both teams putting up gaudy statistics."
Just in case someone dunks the Ducks between now and the end of the season, AccuScore also simulated an Auburn-Boise State championship game.
Auburn won 54 percent of simulations against Boise State by an average of 3-points (34-31).
"While Auburn continues to be vulnerable in pass defense, the Tigers have been putting up gaudy numbers on offense highlighted by over 400 yards on the ground vs. LSU," Rosenfield said. "Auburn also protects the football when they are on offense, giving them a better probability of scoring on offense and not giving up cheap points on fumbles or interceptions."