The Big One: It's not if a quake strikes, but when

The Big One: It's not if a quake strikes, but when

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By KIm Quintero KVAL News and KVAL Web Staff

EUGENE, Ore. -- A massive earthquake could rock Oregon tonight -- or in 200 years.

The shaking could destroy aging firehouses, police departments, schools and office buildings -- or efforts to retrofit and update these buildings to withstand an earthquake could be completed first.

 
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And the resulting tsunami could sweep over the Oregon and Washington coasts like the Indian Ocean tsunammi in 2004 that killed 150,000 people -- or efforts to improve tsunami evacuation routes could lead coastal residents and visitors to safety.

One thing is for certain: the Big One will rock Oregon suddenly and without warning.

After The Big One

Imagine: The Big One just hit, and your workplace building collapsed on top of you. You're trapped under 3,000 pounds of concrete, injured, waiting.

Oregon created a special search and rescue task force of firefighters five years ago with The Big One in mind. Members of the team trained in Eugene and Springfield earlier this month.

"I don't think you're ever really ready for it," said John McDoweel with the task force. "I think you can just try and prepare the best that you can."

If the big one hits, the mission for firefighters will be complex yet simple: pull victims from rubble.

But in some cases, the very buildings housing fire departments put the first responders at risk themselves. A lot of fire department buildings have a high potential for collapse, according to a state report.

"Those are a priority in the state" for seismic upgrades and retrofits, said Randy Simpson, chief deputy with the Office of the State Fire Marshal. "They have started a few years ago, providing the funding to assist agencies to upgrade their fire departments."

Schools are also in danger. Take Walterville Elementary, for example.

According to a statewide report released in 2007, an old chimney on the Springfield school gives it a "high collapse potential."

"That is a concern for us," said Jeff DeFranco with the Springfield School District, "not only because it is un-reinforced, but the chimney has a number of issues. And that is one of the projects that will be addressed this summer."

Without Warning

As repairs are made, the threats still loom large.

In the event of a massive earthquake, you could expect "wide devastation, initiate tsunamis on the oregon coast and the washington coast," said David Schmidt, a professor of geology at the University of Oregon. "It would cause a major change in lifestyle."

Schmidt studies seismic activity. He says a magnitude 9.0 megathrust earthquake is bound to hit the Cascadia Subduction Zone, a 600 mile area stretching from Washington to northern California.

"The large megathrusts," Schmidt said, "typically occur with no prior warning."

So how big is a magnitude 9.0 quake? In 2004, a 9.1 quake jolted the coast of Indonesia, triggering a tsunami that killed 150,000 people and left more than 5 million homeless without water, food or shelter.

"We would expect something similar to happen here at some point in the future," said Schmidt. 

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