KVAL's gameday predictions (week 9)
Will the Ducks take down the mighty Trojans? And can the Beavers bounce back against UCLA? The guys in the KVAL sports office give their predictions.
This is the one just about everyone's been waiting for.
The eyes of the nation will be on Oregon and USC Saturday, and ESPN's College Gameday guys will be there to see what could wind up being the unofficial Pac-10 championship game.
Of course both teams still have a long way to go - with plenty of tough games remaining - after this week, but the winner is the clear favorite to win the conference.
That honor (at least a share of it) has gone to the Trojans every year since 2002.
The last time USC looked like it might not take the Pac-10 crown was in 2007, when both Stanford and the Ducks took down the Men of Troy, before Dennis Dixon's ACL-tear derailed Oregon's season.
That game in '07 was very similar to the situation building for this week.
Both teams were 6-1 and ranked in the top-10 of the BCS standings, just as they are this year.
The Trojans had a young quarterback making just his third start in Mark Sanchez in 2007, and this week true freshman Matt Barkley will get his first taste of Autzen Stadium.
But will the outcome be similar?
When you compare the common opponents between these teams, you have to like the Ducks' chances.
Oregon was the first team to expose Cal, lighting up the Golden Bears 42-3 at Autzen. A week later, the Trojans pulled off a similar feat, going down to Berkeley and pounding Cal 39-3.
After demolishing Cal, the Ducks hardly broke a sweat against Washington State in a 52-6 victory. USC allowed the Cougars to keep the game fairly respectable with a 27-6 win in the Coliseum.
The other common opponent is Washington. The Huskies shocked the Trojans - albeit without Matt Barkley - 16-13 at Husky Stadium. Last week Oregon dispatched the Dawgs easily, running away with a 43-19 victory.
THE PICKS:
Brian Elder - In 2007 the Ducks took advantage of a perfect storm to take down USC. Dennis Dixon and the offense were putting up huge numbers, and the Oregon defense was playing its best ball of the season. This feels all too similar to that game. The Ducks are clicking, and the Trojans have looked more vulnerable by the week. The SC defense has given up some big numbers and points the last two weeks, but the offense was good enough to allow the Trojans to escape. But the Oregon defense is a special group, and the Ducks aren't likely to yield very many points with a raucous crowd behind them. Matt Barkley claims that he is excited to play in such a big game in an awesome atmosphere. Be careful what you wish for. I expect the Trojans to turn the ball over a couple of times (USC is last in the Pac-10 in turnover margin at -0.43), and the Ducks will take advantage of that. Defense was the difference in Oregon's 24-17 win in '07, and it will be again this year. Oregon's defense will hold the Trojans in check, and USC's defense will continue to struggle. But this time, USC won't survive. OREGON - 34, USC - 20
Tom Ward - The Trojan defense just isn't what it used to be. USC lost nine starters off last year's unit, and after looking like they weren't going to miss a beat early in the season, the Trojans have struggled the last two weeks. Oregon just seems to have everything working right now, just like in 2007. A great example of that is the ball fakes. Two years ago Dennis Dixon and the Ducks fooled Washington - and their fans - on numerous occasions with fantastic ball fakes. Last week it was deja vu, as Jeremiah Masoli and company had the Dawgs fooled on just about every play. They'll be able to fool the Trojans too. OREGON - 31, USC - 20
Nick Krupke - Most people seem to think that Matt Barkley will be intimidated by the Autzen Crowd. Yes, he's a true freshman, but he sure doesn't seem like it. I don't think he's going to choke on Saturday. He'll be solid, and this will be a back and forth type of game. Just when one team think it has the edge, the other is going to make a play and come roaring back. But I think the Trojans will make a mistake somewhere that will cost them. Oregon is going to be jacked up playing at home, and that will give the Ducks a slight edge on Saturday. OREGON - 34, USC - 31
Dirk Weishaar - Whoever runs the football better and takes better care of the football will win. I expect Oregon to be able to get USC in some 3rd and long situations where they'll be able to pressure Matt Barkley into some bad decisions. Oregon won't get any touchdowns on defense or special teams this week, and that will keep the game close. But I still like the Ducks to come out on top. OREGON - 27, USC - 24
Oregon State Vs. UCLA:
The Beavers were within an eyelash of spoiling the showdown at Autzen this week, but USC used a punt return for a touchdown by Damian Williams to survive a 42-36 scare from OSU.
The key for the Beavs this week will be not letting the Trojans beat them twice.
This is the classic "hangover game" type of situation, but you can bet that Mike Riley will have his guys ready to play.
UCLA has given the Beavers plenty of trouble recently. Riley just earned his first victory as a head coach over the Bruins when OSU beat UCLA 34-6 last season. And the Bruins have won five of the last six.
But the Bruins have struggled this season, and after starting off the season at 3-0, UCLA has dropped all of it's Pac-10 games to fall to 3-4.
The offense hasn't been able to move the football - or score any points - for most of the season, and in a sign of desperation head coach Rick Neuheisel says that he will play two quarterbacks at Reser Stadium this week.
THE PICKS:
Brian Elder - The old saying is that two is better than one, but that rarely (if ever) applies to quarterbacks. But despite the wishes of offensive coordinator Norm Chow, Rick Neuheisel is going to test that theory. Kevin Prince has been ineffective since returning from a broken jaw after the Tennessee game. But in his limited action this season, Richard Brehaut hasn't been much better. And don't count on them having a good day against an angry Oregon State team this weekend. The Beaver defense could have its best day of the season on Saturday, and the OSU offense is starting to look like one of the best in the Pac-10. Sean Canfield is playing as well as anyone in the conference, and he should be able to pick apart the Bruin secondary. OSU - 31, UCLA - 10
Tom Ward - What has happened to the UCLA defense? The Bruins gave up 45 points in a loss to Cal two weeks ago, and last week Arizona rolled up 456 yards of total offense. Early in the season, during a 3-0 start, the Bruins leaned heavily on a stout defense. Now that luxury appears to be gone, and UCLA better find some answers quickly. But I don't expect the Bruins to be much better on Saturday. Sean Canfield is in a rhythm, and Jacquizz Rodgers should be able to churn out some yards as OSU will seemingly score at will. OSU - 34, UCLA - 13
Nick Krupke - UCLA just isn't very good. They can't score, and you obviously can't win if you can't score. The Beavers, on the other hand, can score. And they will. Quizz and Canfield should both have a solid afternoon, and the OSU defense will be flying around and making plays against that terrible Bruin offense. OSU - 27, UCLA - 10
Dirk Weishaar - The OSU offense is really clicking with the Rodgers brothers and Sean Canfield. Meanwhile, the Bruins' offense is pedestrian at best. As long as the Beavers don't hurt themselves with mistakes, the Beavs will win comfortable. OSU - 37, UCLA - 16
Everyone was perfect last week, and Brian, Tom and Nick all continue to lead the standings at 6-2. Dirk is back up to .500 at 4-4.
