'When Oregon wins the turnover battle, they win 83 percent of the time'

LOS ANGELES - Oregon is a solid favorite with a 70 percent chance to beat USC, according to the AccuScore computer simulations of the game.

After running 10,000 AccuScore simulations, Oregon is winning average simulations by a score of 38-27, college football analyst Zach Rosenfield with AccuScore said.

The computer allows AccuScore analysts to play "what if" with factors in the game, including home field advantage.

"If this game was played in Autzen Stadium," Rosenfield said, "Oregon would be winning by an average score of 40-25."

Highlights of the AccuScore forecast for Saturday's game

LaMichael James keys the offense and is projected for another big day with  146 rushing yards and a 76 percent chance of having at least 1 rushing TD.

"The biggest standout in the simulations comes from the defense," AccuScore said. "Oregon is projected to sack Matt Barkley three times and force two turnovers.

"USC also is not showing to have much impact in the rushing game," he said. "They are projected to rush for just over 100 yards, which is half of the productions that the Ducks ground game is projected to produce."

The Ducks also have to buck the fate of other top-ranked undefeated teams in recent weeks: upset losses at the hands of a lesser-ranked opponent. Those losses helped catapult Oregon to the top of the AP, USA Today and Harris polls and the second place slot in the BCS.

"Turnovers have played a big role in Alabama’s, Ohio State’s and Oklahoma’s loss and is the biggest catalyst for an upset," Rosenfield said. "When Oregon wins the turnover battle, they win 83 percent of the time."

"In upset scenarios where USC wins, Matt Barkley averages 2.32 TD passes vs 0.75 interceptions," Rosenfield said. "However, in losses he has a ratio of 1.25 TDs to 1 interceptions."