EUGENE, Ore. - The computer loves Oregon.
But it only takes once to send the Ducks to the Bowl Championship Series game for the first time ever - or crown this year's Beavers as the biggest spoilers in Oregon football history.
AccuScore's model, which attempts to forecast sporting events like weather computers forecast the weather, gives the Beavs a glimmer of hope - hey, in 1,300 of those 10,000 simulations, Oregon State pulls off an upset.
But Zach Rosenfield, college football analyst with AccuScore, doesn't see that happening.
"Oregon State’s 2010 season has been a complete disaster and it shows when you look at the numbers," Rosenfield said. "Nobody thought the transition from Canfield to Katz would have caused such a drop off, but the numbers are staggering.
"This season, when an Oregon State quarterback drops back to pass, 12 percent of those plays end up in either a sack or interception. That number is up 4.5 percent against last year when Canfield was the quarterback," Rosenfield said. "The fallout from the negative plays have really hurt the Beavers to have manageable situations and run the ball effectively. Jacquizz Rodgers is averaging a full 10 yards less a game in 2010 vs. 2009 and the passing game had not made up the difference with 1,000 yards less production this season vs. last.
"The fallout from the decreased productivity means that opposing teams are getting extra possessions. Oregon State only punted 51 times in last year’s 13-game season, but have already punted 57 times in 11 games in 2010.
"The punting number really stand out and is a key catalyst to why AccuScore has Oregon winning 84 percent of simulations by an average margin of 20 points. The Ducks have have either scored a touchdown or attempted a field in goal in an astounding 56 percent of their possessions this season when they are not trying to run out the clock.
"The math is simple: more possessions means Oregon will either score or flip the field, which is trouble for an Oregon State team that is having trouble moving the ball and putting up points."